Asia’s Economic Growth Expected to Reach 4.5% in 2024
The Asian economy is projected to contribute the most to global economic growth, with Asia set to experience a growth rate of approximately 4.5% this year. Supported by strong consumer spending and positive fiscal policies, Asian economic growth is expected to outpace that of 2023.
Regional Growth Outlook
- East Asia is projected to grow by 4.3%, similar to the growth rate of 2023.
- South Asia is expected to see a growth rate of 5.8%, surpassing the 5.4% recorded in 2023, making it the fastest-growing region in Asia.
- Central Asia may experience a slight decline in growth, with a rate of 4.3% compared to 4.5% in 2023.
- West Asia is predicted to increase to 3.5% from 2.5% in 2023.
Based on calculations of purchasing power parity (PPP), the GDP scale of Asian economies is projected to account for 49% of the world’s GDP in 2024, an increase of 0.5% compared to 2023.
Caption: Business Today – Asia Forum releases reports during the annual conference in 2024 (Photo: VCG)
Financial Markets Stability
In terms of finance, major Asian countries are expected to maintain stability in their capital markets, forex, bonds, and banking sectors. In 2024, most Asian stock markets are likely to continue their recovery due to stable economic growth and slower progress in tightening external monetary policies. Additionally, currency exchange rates are expected to increase, while the 10-year government bond yields are predicted to decline continuously. Moreover, the non-performing loan ratio in the banking sector is expected to reduce further.
Trade and Investment Outlook
Asia is expected to reverse the declining trade and investment trend from 2023. However, global economic slowdown, geopolitical conflicts, and tightened international financial environments will still pose significant pressure on trade and investment in Asia and worldwide in 2024. Asia is also grappling with the impacts of fragmented supply chains. Nevertheless, with the rapid development of digital commerce, the accelerating recovery of the Asian tourism sector, and the promotion of economic agreements such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the positive effects of restructuring value chains and Asia’s industrial integration into the regional economy are gradually becoming evident. These factors are expected to provide new impetus for trade and investment in Asia.
Digital Commerce and Artificial Intelligence
The Asia-Pacific region has become the world’s largest retail e-commerce market. In 2023, China (first), Japan (fourth), South Korea (fifth), and India (sixth) ranked among the top 10 leading countries globally in terms of retail e-commerce sales.
The report also highlights the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) in Asia, which is bringing new development and cooperation opportunities. AI has evolved from “computer-based human intelligence simulation” to three directions: “machine + human,” “machine + human + network,” and “machine + human + network + things.”
The AI industry has demonstrated breakthroughs in technological innovation, integrated applications in various sectors, and extensive cooperation in international collaboration. However, AI also presents challenges in terms of employment, wealth distribution, regulatory compliance, and the responsible development and use of AI. Therefore, the development and proper utilization of AI have become significant issues in Asian countries’ cooperation.
In conclusion, Asia’s economic growth is poised to reach 4.5% in 2024, making it a vital contributor to global economic expansion. With stable financial markets, a rebound in trade and investment, and advancements in digital commerce and artificial intelligence, Asia is on track to harness new opportunities and overcome challenges in the coming year.
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