Climate Forecast 2024: How Will Natural Disasters Impact Vietnam?
Climate change is a topic of great concern worldwide, and experts are constantly monitoring weather patterns to predict future events. According to meteorologists, after a period of strong and complex El Nino activity, La Nina is expected to occur in the second half of 2024. La Nina is a phenomenon that often brings heavy rainfall to Southeast Asia, India, Canada, Australia, while causing drought in parts of the Americas.
National Geographic reports that although it is too early to provide an official forecast for the weather in 2024, meteorological experts warn that rising sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and the development of La Nina in the Pacific could create a “perfect fuel” for the formation of large storms.
It is important to understand the factors that contribute to the formation of tropical storms. A combination of warm ocean temperatures (typically above 26°C) and the absence of wind shear (caused by the weakening of upper-level winds in the Atlantic due to La Nina) is key to the formation of any tropical cyclone.
Alex DaSilva, a leading hurricane forecaster at AccuWeather, explains that wind shear occurs when the wind changes direction and speed at different altitudes in the atmosphere.
During the El Nino period, the sea surface temperature in the eastern Pacific Ocean rises, resulting in warmer temperatures and affecting the path of jet streams in the Pacific. El Nino reduces the probability of major Atlantic hurricanes by increasing wind shear, which inhibits storm activity.
La Nina, on the other hand, has the opposite effect. Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean decrease, reducing wind shear and supporting storm formation.
So, what can we expect in terms of natural disasters in Vietnam in 2024?
As of now, global weather is experiencing a neutral phase of ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation), meaning there is neither El Nino nor La Nina.
According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), from April to June 2024, the El Nino phenomenon is expected to weaken and transition to a neutral phase with an 83% probability. Following that, from June to August 2024, La Nina is expected to occur with a 62% probability.
Hoang Phuc Lam, Deputy Director of the National Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting Center, states that with this ENSO pattern, Vietnam will be affected by El Nino in the first half of 2024 and La Nina in the second half. He also mentions that the year 2024 will still experience many hot days, with intense heatwaves surpassing the average of previous years but unlikely to surpass the records set in 2023.
Meteorologists predict that the occurrence of La Nina in 2024 could lead to an increased frequency of storms and tropical depressions in Vietnam. The central and southern regions may face more frequent heavy rains and flooding.
It is essential for authorities, communities, and individuals to be prepared and take appropriate measures to mitigate the impacts of these potential natural disasters.
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References: National Geographic, Reuters, Chinhphu.vn