Expert Reveals the Timing of the Real Estate Market’s “Hundred Flowers Blossoming” Period, Rising Prices, and the Return of Speculation
The real estate market has been identified as hitting rock bottom and is now entering a new cycle. Over the past year, investor confidence has gradually stabilized, and the market has shown signs of improvement, indicating the beginning of a new era.
According to Nguyen Quoc Anh, Deputy General Director of Batdongsan.com.vn, in order to support the development of the real estate market, several policies have been enacted and obstacles have been gradually removed. Reflecting on the past, Nguyen Quoc Anh states that during the 2008-2012 cycle, real estate inventory consistently increased. However, in 2013, there was a turning point when credit was loosened, a 30 trillion VND support package was implemented, and the Land Law (amended) was passed, all of which supported the real estate market.
Comparing the current situation, similar positive trends to those of the previous cycle are emerging. Additionally, at present, the State Bank of Vietnam has made several adjustments to interest rates, resulting in a decrease in deposit and lending rates in many banks. The government has also implemented numerous solutions to support businesses and the market, especially with regards to real estate-related laws that will come into effect in early 2025, creating bright prospects for the market.
Based on these factors, Quoc Anh believes that in the second half of 2024, the market will begin to explore with small-scale liquidity coming from residential products that meet real demand.
“The turning point of the real estate market could occur from the second to fourth quarter of 2024. The market will then enter a new cycle and go through four phases: Exploration, consolidation, revitalization, and stability,” predicts Quoc Anh.
Furthermore, from the second to fourth quarter of 2025, when the economy recovers strongly, investment in real estate will increase, the financial capacity of investors will improve, and the monetary environment will be more favorable, marking the return of a thriving real estate market.
“It is expected that from the first quarter of 2026 onwards, the market will resolve all lingering issues, experience good growth in liquidity, and see a steep increase in prices. We will also witness the phenomenon of “hundred flowers blossoming” with the development of various types of real estate. The market will be extremely dynamic,” Quoc Anh states.
In addition, speculative types of real estate investments are beginning to reemerge. These products are experiencing growth in both investor confidence and market transactions, according to the Deputy General Director of Batdongsan.com.vn.
Commenting on the best timing for real estate investment, Nguyen Van Dinh, Chairman of the Vietnam Real Estate Brokers Association (VARS), believes that the first quarter of 2024 presents a unique opportunity for experienced and professional investors to acquire good assets and make long-term investments that will yield high profits over a period of 3-5 years.
Dinh forecasts that from the third quarter of 2024, the market will start to rise, and opportunities to purchase real estate at favorable prices will become scarce, if not virtually nonexistent. Therefore, the first two quarters of 2024 are the “last wave” in the 10-year cycle of real estate fluctuations, offering investors a chance to enter the market.
The VARS Chairman emphasizes that this period is suitable for investors with sustainable financial resources and a deep understanding of the market to capture the “last wave.” For those in need of actual housing, this is a good opportunity to realize the dream of settling down and achieving success since real estate businesses are required to restructure and adjust prices to remain competitive.