Factors That Could Impact the Trump Re-election Campaign

The race to the White House in 2024 appears to be a rematch between former President Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden. In the previous race, Trump and Biden went head-to-head as the Republican and Democratic candidates respectively, with Biden coming out on top. However, the outcome of the upcoming Trump-Biden matchup is uncertain.

The First Rematch in Decades

Joe Biden and Donald Trump are set to face off in the first rematch between presidential candidates since 1956. It is also the first rematch between an incumbent president and a former president since 1892.

Unlike the 2020 election, where Biden had an advantage over Trump throughout the campaign, Biden faces a tougher road this time around. Many observers believe that Trump still has a chance to return to the White House.

Polls Show a Close Race

Recent polls from The New York Times/Siena College, CBS News/YouGov, Fox News, and The Wall Street Journal indicate that Trump has a higher approval rating than Biden by 2-4 percentage points. While these polls have a margin of error, they generally paint a dim picture for the incumbent president.

In battleground states like the Sun Belt, President Biden has lower approval ratings compared to four years ago. Recent polls in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada show Biden’s approval rating trailing Trump’s by about 5 percentage points. However, no Democratic presidential candidate has lost the state of Nevada since 2004.

If President Biden fails to win these crucial states, he can still secure victory by winning the states he won in 2020, giving him 270 electoral votes compared to Trump’s 268.

Challenges for President Biden

One challenge for President Biden is his declining support in Michigan. An average of polls over the past six months shows a 4% decrease in Biden’s approval rating in Michigan.

Overall, the polls show Trump with a slight lead over Biden, but it’s important to remember that the election is still eight months away.

Top Concerns for Voters

The economy and immigration are the top issues for American voters. Trump is seen as more trustworthy than Biden on these two issues.

The latest New York Times poll shows Trump with a 44% approval rating, higher than Biden’s 38%. Recent surveys suggest that Trump’s approval rating has remained stable and higher than in 2020. Trump’s views have improved among African American, Latino, young, and working-class voters.

However, with eight months until the 2024 presidential election, Biden is likely to narrow the gap in approval ratings.

Fundraising Challenges

While Trump has gained more support, he also faces fundraising challenges that could significantly impact the upcoming election. Trump’s fundraising efforts were more successful in February but dropped in March, both in monthly donations and cash on hand, compared to Biden.

According to campaign records, Trump’s 2024 campaign raised $10.9 million in February, and his joint fundraising committees raised nearly $11 million. Overall, Trump’s campaign has raised about $42 million as of March.

However, these numbers pale in comparison to Biden’s fundraising efforts. Biden’s campaign raised about $53 million in February, bringing the total campaign funds to $155 million in March.

“It’s concerning. All I can say is they need to do better. I think he can win regardless of the circumstances, but they need to maintain a competitive edge in fundraising. But that’s not happening right now,” said a Republican strategist.

Legal Issues and Trump’s Finances

Trump is facing various legal issues, including four criminal indictments and the potential seizure of his assets by the New York authorities if he fails to pay $464 million in a civil lawsuit brought by New York Attorney General Letitia James.

In contrast, Biden’s campaign remains optimistic that fundraising will continue to increase. They raised $10 million within 24 hours after Biden’s State of the Union address.

President Biden has held three fundraisers in Texas and plans to attend two more, including an event in New York City with former Presidents Obama and Clinton.

The Republican National Committee (RNC), which coordinates campaign fundraising efforts, has struggled to support Trump’s campaign. As of March, the RNC had $11.3 million in its bank account, while the Democratic National Committee (DNC) had about $26.6 million in cash.

Conclusion

Although Biden leads in fundraising, it may not translate into a significant advantage over Trump in the rematch. In the 2016 election, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton outspent Trump but still lost the race.

Looking back at the 2016 election between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, Heye, a former communications aide at the RNC, said Trump could win again. He pointed out that Trump’s approval rating in key states is higher than Biden’s.

“Trump won in 2016 without a massive fundraising apparatus. If the polls are accurate, he could win again. However, his campaign team needs to reassure donors more,” said Heye.

As the election draws nearer, both candidates will face numerous challenges. The outcome will ultimately be determined by the American voters.