Is There a Possibility of Transnistria Joining Russia?

In recent news, Russia has taken action against Moldova. According to Reuters, the Russian Foreign Ministry has summoned the Moldovan Ambassador to Moscow and declared that a diplomat at the Moldovan Embassy “is not welcome in Moscow.” In other words, this individual has been expelled from Russia.

The Russian Foreign Ministry stated that this action was in response to Moldova’s expulsion of a Russian diplomat after Moscow opened polling stations for the Russian Presidential elections in the breakaway region of Transnistria. In February, Transnistria held a congress where they called on Russia to protect the region from increasing pressure from the Moldovan government.

Moldova’s Foreign Ministry previously summoned the Russian Ambassador, Oleg Vasnetsov, to protest the Kremlin’s decision to open six polling stations in Transnistria. During the meeting, the Moldovan Foreign Ministry also informed Vasnetsov that a Russian diplomat “is not welcome in Moldova” and must leave the country.

Initially, Russia agreed to open only one polling station in Transnistria, but later increased this number to six. Transnistria declared itself an independent state after a brief war in the early 1990s and has maintained close ties with Russia ever since.

Transnistria is currently home to around 220,000 Russian citizens, and Moscow is maintaining 1,500 soldiers there to preserve peace and protect weapons and ammunition depots from the Soviet era.

Speculation about Russia taking military action to protect Transnistria has been circulating since the region officially sought Russian patronage. Russian media and Transnistria have repeatedly reported on the possibility of Ukraine and Moldova launching a military action to compensate for their failures in the previous counteroffensive against Russia.

On the same day, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke to Izvestia, stating that Russia does not rule out the possibility of Moldova seeking a military solution to the Transnistria issue. The government in Chisinau has rejected proposals for negotiations in the 5+2 format, which includes international actors such as OSCE, Russia, Ukraine, EU representatives, and the United States.

Lavrov emphasized that Moldova has made decisions to abandon Transnistria, rejecting numerous proposals from both Transnistria and Russia to resume negotiations in the 5+2 format. Moldovan President Mai Sandu has announced that they will organize a referendum on joining the European Union without Transnistria.

Lavrov believes that Moldova’s current government is following in the footsteps of Kiev, eradicating the Russian language and discriminating against Russians in all areas. Alongside Ukraine, Moldova is exerting serious pressure on Transnistria, which Lavrov believes is why Transnistria is calling on Russia for help.

Analysts have raised the possibility of Transnistria joining Russia. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in Washington suggests that Transnistria may soon seek to merge with Russia, citing the need to protect Russian citizens and compatriots in Transnistria from threats coming from Moldova, NATO, or both.

The most serious scenario, proposed by the West in February, predicted that President Vladimir Putin “could declare the incorporation of Transnistria into Russia” in his speech to the legislature on February 29th. However, this did not happen.

Vitaly Ignatiev, head of Transnistria’s Foreign Ministry, revealed in an interview with RTVI that Transnistria currently has no plans to join Russia. He stated that the recent congress held in Transnistria aimed to draw attention from neighbors regarding the deteriorating relations between Chisinau and Transnistria due to stalled negotiations.

Transnistrian delegates recommended seeking assistance from the international community, as well as Russia, the OSCE, and Ukraine, who play a mediating role in the 5+2 negotiations.

It is worth noting that in 2006, a referendum was held in Transnistria where residents voted in favor of secession from Moldova and subsequently sought to join Russia.

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