NATO’s 75-Year Existence: How Powerful is It?
NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) has officially welcomed Finland as its 31st member on April 4, 2023. As a Northern European powerhouse, Finland brings a well-trained and well-equipped military force to NATO’s table.
Analysts believe that Finland’s membership will double the length of the NATO-Russia border, accelerating the integration of NATO’s military forces and forming a strategic encirclement that puts pressure on Moscow from the north to the south.
So, after attracting 31 member countries and surviving for 75 years, how powerful is NATO? Why does NATO, with its large force and advanced equipment, continuously exert pressure on Russia through military exercises and expansion to the East, but never directly engage in conflicts?
The Strength of NATO
When it comes to the world’s most powerful military force, NATO undoubtedly deserves a mention. Currently, the total active military personnel among the 31 member countries is around 3.5 million, with over 6.2 million reserves.
Since the Cold War era, NATO has focused on building its military strength. Even the unified military forces stationed in Central Europe alone had 800,000 troops. In case of emergency, NATO can mobilize 110 divisions, 500 warships, and 250 air squadrons within 48 hours.
After the Cold War, NATO significantly reduced its forces but maintained 70 standing divisions, 350 warships, and 120 air squadrons.
NATO not only maintains a robust military force but also possesses a unified and comprehensive command system.
During peacetime, except for some standing units, most of NATO’s military forces are controlled by member countries. Among NATO’s unified forces, the strongest are the naval and air forces. Throughout history, NATO member countries have had an advantage in maritime affairs. Today, NATO’s major powers are also major naval powers.
The United States, in particular, has the world’s largest navy with 350,000 personnel, including 11 aircraft carrier strike groups, 72 submarines, 297 warships over 1,000 tons, and 10 carrier-based fighter squadrons.
The United Kingdom ranks as NATO’s second-largest naval power, with 52 warships and a total tonnage of 720,000, ranking fifth in the world.
Italy’s navy has 46 warships with a total tonnage of 269,000, dominating the Mediterranean region.
Currently, NATO has deployed five unified naval fleets in the strategic areas of the Mediterranean and the Atlantic, covering all of Europe and North America.
In terms of air forces, the total number of fighter aircraft among NATO countries exceeds 20,000, accounting for 40% of the global air force, mostly consisting of fourth-generation fighter aircraft such as the F-16, F-22, Rafale, Mirage, and B-2.
Looking at NATO member countries, there is no doubt that the United States possesses the most powerful and advanced air force. The U.S. alone has more than 13,000 fighter aircraft, completely dominating any other country.
In particular, the F-22, F-35, and B-2 bombers of the United States outperform most other countries in terms of combat capabilities and technological advancements.
After the U.S., Germany and the UK have the strongest air forces within NATO.
Germany’s air force maintains a strength of around 70,000 personnel with 730 fighter aircraft. Meanwhile, the UK has 55,000 air force personnel and 430 fighter aircraft.
Additionally, France, Turkey, Spain, Poland, and several other countries also maintain relatively large air forces.
Beyond conventional military strength, NATO possesses a superior nuclear weapons arsenal compared to the rest of the world.
NATO possesses the largest tactical nuclear force today, with the ability to carry out three-dimensional nuclear attacks – in the air, at sea, and on land. This nuclear force is primarily based on the strength of the United States.
This nuclear superpower has over 7,000 nuclear warheads in operation as of the 21st century.
The Threat of Russia’s Nuclear Power
Russia also possesses a trump card that makes NATO wary – its nuclear power. Inheriting the heavy industrial heritage of the Soviet Union, Russia has more nuclear warheads than the United States.
Russian President Putin has warned the West that “the threat of a nuclear war is a present reality if they send troops to fight on the Ukrainian battlefield.”
Returning to October 2022, NATO conducted a nuclear exercise called “Steadfast Noon” despite Russia’s opposition.
According to reports, the exercise involved about 60 fighter aircraft, including long-range strategic bombers capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
A NATO spokesperson at the time stated, “The purpose of the exercise is to maintain NATO’s credible strategic nuclear deterrent capability. The exercise will simulate a series of events that could occur in future warfare.”
In response, Russia immediately conducted its nuclear exercise called “Grom,” involving strategic bombers, submarines, and missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
Russia’s grand-scale nuclear exercise immediately attracted global attention, unsettling NATO member countries.
In the face of Russia’s nuclear exercise, U.S. President Joe Biden publicly declared that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has caused “the most serious nuclear threat since the Cuban Missile Crisis.”
Russia sees this as an exaggerated nuclear threat viewpoint, stating that “the seriousness of NATO’s nuclear exercises is noteworthy. Just like during the Cuban Missile Crisis, Washington did not consider Moscow’s legitimate concerns about nuclear threats.”
The Kremlin declared, “The more the White House supports the regime in Kiev, the more it opposes Russia, which means an increased possibility of nuclear conflict and its dire consequences.”
This statement quickly raised alarm bells among NATO countries.
The White House had to issue an emergency statement clarifying that they “have not found any signs of Russia using nuclear weapons.”
French President Macron also called on Russia to exercise restraint regarding its nuclear threats, stating, “If Ukraine is attacked with nuclear weapons, France will not respond with nuclear weapons.”
The reactions of the United States and France show NATO’s concern about Russia’s nuclear power.
Therefore, in the event that NATO launches a comprehensive military campaign against Russia, it is likely that over 5,000 of Moscow’s nuclear warheads will welcome the participating countries.
China’s Support for Russia
Another reason why NATO does not engage with Russia militarily is China’s support for Russia.
Although Beijing and Moscow have not formed a military alliance, they are on the same front, given the understandable saying, “a common enemy makes strange bedfellows.” China cannot allow NATO to defeat Russia.
As long as Russia exists, there will be a strong buffer zone between China and NATO, preventing direct confrontation between the two sides.
But if Russia collapses, the influence of NATO will spread to East Asia. This alliance system could extend to the border with China, making China the next target of NATO.
In this case, if NATO wants to attack Russia, they will have to consider China’s stance, and potentially face direct confrontation with China. This is something most NATO countries do not want to witness.
At the NATO Summit in December 2019, European countries pointed out that “China’s rise is both a challenge and an opportunity for NATO.”
During the Munich Security Conference in February 2024, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a series of sideline meetings with European leaders and counterparts. Wang continuously emphasized China as a “reliable partner” for Europe and a “stabilizing force” in global issues.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell also pledged to “oppose” the separation of the world’s second-largest economy.
In his meeting with Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Paris on February 20, French President Emmanuel Macron stated that France respects the “strategic autonomy” of the EU and is ready to enhance coordination with China to protect peace and stability in the face of global challenges.
Macron actively promotes the EU’s strategic autonomy, believing that the bloc needs to be stronger on the global stage and operate independently in various fields, from military operations to industrial policies. He called on the bloc not to be “dependent” on the United States or be drawn into escalating tensions between the U.S. and China.
It can be seen that the tension between European NATO members and China is mostly due to the influence of the United States. Fundamentally, there is no irreconcilable conflict of interest between China and Europe.
In conclusion, NATO, composed of the most developed countries in the world, whether in terms of economic scale, political influence, or military might, outperforms any other nation.
However, once NATO chooses to directly militarily confront Russia, the West will have to face the joint opposition of China and Russia. Ignoring China’s increasing military strength alone, Russia’s thousands of nuclear warheads are enough to incapacitate NATO.