Russia Loses Second Place in Global Arms Export

The annual report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reveals that Russia has dropped to third place, behind the United States and France, in the list of the world’s largest arms exporters. This marks the first time that Russia has lost its second-place position.

During the period of 2019-2023, Russia’s arms exports decreased by 53% compared to the previous period of 2014-2018. SIPRI’s report highlights that this decline has been rapid over the past five years. Furthermore, the number of important customers for Russia has decreased from 31 to 12 countries during this period.

Pieter D. Wezeman, a senior researcher in SIPRI’s Arms and Military Expenditure Programme, commented on the bleak prospects for Russia’s arms exports. He stated, “This is not just a temporary decline, Russia’s arms exports will not be able to recover to the levels we have seen before.”

Wezeman emphasized the significant challenges that Russia faces in maintaining its position as a major arms supplier in the world. While new large orders may emerge, they have yet to be seen. The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has depleted Russia’s military-industrial resources. Additionally, Russia’s domestic industry and foreign trade have been restricted by Western sanctions. These limitations have weakened Russia’s ability to produce advanced weapons.

The international financial markets have also hindered Russia’s ability to conduct transactions. Wezeman raised questions about whether Russia’s arms industry can simultaneously meet domestic and export demands, while considering the technology restrictions and payment methods under sanctions. This issue seems to be impeding deals between Russia and India.

Despite the performance of Russian weapons in the Ukrainian conflict, they have not been beneficial for defense industry businesses. Several Russian warships have been sunk, aircraft shot down, and air defense systems have proven to be inefficient. Some high-value items from Russia have yet to be delivered to customers.

Loss of Important Markets

The decline in exports has made Russia’s arms industry increasingly reliant on Asia and the Pacific, which accounted for 68% of total exports from 2019 to 2023. India accounted for 34%, while China accounted for 21%. However, both India and China are emerging as potential military powers and have decreasing demands for Russian weapons.

Wezeman highlighted the significant changes in Russia’s arms exports and how they affect India and China. He stated, “They [Russia] cannot convince India to purchase more fighter jets. India has turned to France and is exploring advanced American anti-submarine warfare capabilities. India is also developing its own defense industry and can produce warships and fighter aircraft, which were previously bought from Russia.”

Political concerns also impact Russia’s closest customers. For example, India wants to demonstrate its cooperation with the United States against the threat from China. The same is true for Egypt, a country that has drastically reduced its spending on Russian arms, prioritizing American goods, military aid, and political support.

China’s arms industry is now capable of meeting its own needs without relying on imports from Russia, with some exceptions. Wezeman pointed out that China does not want to depend on Russian equipment, especially if they can develop equivalent or better quality domestically. Consequently, the Russian arms market in China is rapidly disappearing.

It remains unclear where Russia can compensate for the increasing gap in its arms exports. Wezeman believes that Russia is no longer as important as it used to be in Europe. In the Middle East, Russia has also not made significant breakthroughs. In Latin America, Russia previously dominated the Venezuelan market for a few years until the country fell into an economic recession.

“The only region that may still show interest in Russian weapons is the Middle East. However, even in this region, it is too early to make any predictions,” added Wezeman.

This article was originally published on Business Today.