The Rise of Mr. Trump and Coin Tossing Advice to Predict the US Election Results

On this year’s Super Tuesday, the Democratic incumbent President Joe Biden and the Republican former President Donald Trump were selected by their respective parties to compete in the November presidential election, just as predicted.

At the state level, each party will send a group of delegates who have been chosen by voters to participate in the national party convention. The Republican convention will be held in July and the Democratic convention in August. The delegates will vote for their party’s presidential candidate.

Super Tuesday is particularly important for Mr. Trump because winning the majority of the 13 Republican primaries in conjunction with the closed-door caucuses guarantees his matchup against Mr. Biden in the race for the White House.

A total of 865 delegates are up for grabs on Super Tuesday, which is equivalent to about one-third of the Republican delegates. Mr. Trump needs to secure at least 1,215 delegates. He has already won 696 delegates on Super Tuesday, bringing his total to 972. There are still 28 more primaries to be held in various states.

On Super Tuesday, Mr. Trump defeated his sole Republican opponent, former US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, who only won in Vermont (49.8%) with 17 delegates. In previous primaries, Haley won only once in Washington DC with 19 delegates. So after Super Tuesday, she has a total of 52 delegates, including 16 from states she didn’t win (according to the delegate allocation mechanism among candidates).

Haley’s underperformance has increased pressure on her and eventually led her to drop out of the race. Throughout the campaign, Trump always believed that Haley’s presence was a distraction on his path to the White House. Unfortunately for him, Haley had a large campaign fund, which was enough to keep her in the race until the very end. The majority of her funding came from people who “never supported Trump,” those who disliked the former president. And as of now, it seems that Haley has no intention of quitting.

Update: Nikki Haley has decided to drop out of the race.

On the other hand, Mr. Biden had no real opponent in the 14 Democratic primaries because as the head of the Democratic Party, he had the power to prevent any opposition to his candidacy. Therefore, his victory was almost guaranteed. He won around 90% of the delegates in each state.

Trump’s Voting Percentage

Here are the voting percentages for Mr. Trump in the Republican primaries: Alabama (84%), Arkansas (76%), California (75%), Colorado (63%), Maine (72%), Massachusetts (61%), Minnesota (69%), North Carolina (74%), Oklahoma (87%), Tennessee (77%), Texas (78%), Utah (66%), Vermont (46%), and Virginia (63%). (The Republican Party is holding closed-door caucuses in Utah and Alaska. Closed-door caucuses are a way for states to directly select a candidate without a formal vote, unlike in primaries.)

The voting percentages in the Republican primaries so far show that Mr. Trump is the strongest candidate nationwide among all Republican candidates. Almost no one can replace him.

An Election Containing Many Issues

The upcoming presidential election in 2024 is unprecedented in American history, characterized by division, controversy, and undemocratic practices. Throughout the race, the Democratic and Republican parties have made every effort to discredit each other, not just to win the election.

The Democratic Party has launched a comprehensive campaign against Mr. Trump ever since he lost to Mr. Biden in 2020. Democratic-controlled states have passed laws to remove Trump’s name from the ballots, both in the primaries and the general election. On Super Tuesday (March 5th), the US Supreme Court ruled that these efforts were unconstitutional, saving Trump’s candidacy. However, Democratic Party members are still trying to find ways to circumvent the Court’s decision.

The Democratic Party has also launched six major legal cases, both criminal and civil, targeting Mr. Trump with the aim of seizing his assets through multimillion-dollar fines (around $500 million), putting him in jail (sentence over 100 years), tying him up in lawsuits, preventing him from campaigning (these six cases are ongoing), demoralizing his supporters, and maintaining negative media coverage of him (which has traditionally been biased against him in the mainstream media). The Democratic Party even pursued impeachment against Mr. Trump after he left office. All these efforts are driven by the fear that he could make a comeback.

On the contrary, the Republican Party has successfully focused on issues related to Mr. Biden’s age. Three-quarters of Americans believe that he is too old to run for re-election. The problem is that the Democratic Party seems to be unable to find a viable replacement for Biden.

The Republican Party has also emphasized economic, immigration, and the Ukrainian and Israeli conflicts as part of its counterattacks. They have accused Biden administration officials, responsible for the border crisis, with pending trials. The Republican Party has also frozen funding for Ukraine and Israel. These are long-term challenges that the Democratic Party will continue to face.

Outlook for November

Because there is no precedent in US history for the race between Biden and Trump with so many current unknowns, most predictions are purely speculative. Here are some points to consider:

Both parties have a large core support base. These are the people who will vote for their respective candidates, Biden or Trump, no matter what.

Many voters will choose Trump simply because they dislike Biden, while others will choose Biden because they dislike Trump. Polls in the US show that 56% of those surveyed dislike Biden and 54% dislike Trump, indicating that the dislike for both candidates is roughly equal. Therefore, many people may change their voting choice or may not vote at all.

Trump has attracted a significant number of minority and Hispanic voters who traditionally belong to Biden’s support base. If these voters turn out to vote, Trump has a chance of winning.

If Biden continues to struggle with economic issues, immigration, and conflicts in Ukraine and Israel, the outlook will not be favorable for him.

However, on the other hand, Biden’s support for abortion gives him an advantage with certain voter groups. Democrats have always gained support from those in favor of abortion, and when considering their votes, other major concerns may be overshadowed.

Both Biden and Trump have a tendency to make controversial statements. Their campaign gaffes can become fatal weaknesses. American citizens are closely watching each candidate due to concerns over inadvertent remarks.

Ultimately, if the Democratic Party succeeds in sending Mr. Trump to jail, which I personally believe is unlikely to happen, they would have a good chance of winning the presidential election.

My advice: flip a coin, and you’ll accurately predict the election results like true experts.