The Untold Story of the Shinawatra Dynasty: Political Enigma
Khoảng 9 giờ ngày 22-8-2023, amidst the anticipation of thousands of supporters, a private jet landed at Don Mueang International Airport in the capital city of Bangkok, marking the end of nearly 16 years in exile.
A Dramatic Return
On the very same day, Thaksin was brought to the Supreme Court and sentenced to 8 years in prison for abuse of power and conflict of interest. However, just a little over 12 hours later, he was transferred to the Police General Hospital in Bangkok, citing health issues. Thai media reported that doctors listed a series of illnesses that the billionaire tycoon suffered from, ranging from insomnia, chest pain, high blood pressure, to cardiovascular and lung problems (likely due to COVID-19).
According to The Guardian, many activists did not accept the official explanation. They referred to Thaksin as a “prisoner not spending a full day in jail” and enjoying various privileges.
Local reports revealed that Thaksin was placed in a private room equipped with air conditioning, a TV, a refrigerator, and received round-the-clock care from nurses. However, no one knows the details of his hospital stay for the following six months.
Less than a month after the trial began, King Maha Vajiralongkorn reduced Thaksin’s sentence to 1 year. On February 18, he was granted a royal pardon after serving 6 months in prison, a process that the Thai government repeatedly emphasized as a legal compliance.
These developments have sparked speculation about a highly secretive agreement negotiated over several months.
Notably, Thaksin’s return home coincided with the Thai Parliament voting for real estate businessman Srettha Thavisin, an ally of the Shinawatra dynasty, as the prime minister of an 11-party coalition government.
The Pheu Thai’s Maneuver
Pheu Thai, although only coming in second in the general elections in May 2023, led this coalition. To achieve this, Pheu Thai joined forces with former military-aligned parties, including Palang Pracharath (Civil Force) and the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship, which is affiliated with former Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-Cha.
Prayut, the Thai army’s commander-in-chief, orchestrated the coup that toppled Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, in 2014.
The motivation behind the “special agreement,” according to many analysts, stems from concerns about the Future Forward Party, the top party in the previous general elections, which initially took the lead in forming the new coalition government, including Pheu Thai.
However, Future Forward’s efforts did not succeed, and their prime ministerial candidate, Pita Limjaroenrat, was not only denied parliamentary approval but also came close to losing his parliamentary seat. Subsequently, Future Forward was excluded from the new coalition formed by Pheu Thai.
No Longer the Same
According to Reuters, the program of Future Forward goes beyond what Pheu Thai offers, with calls for significant reforms in the military, the economy, and Thailand’s strict “lèse-majesté” laws.
The strong rise of Future Forward may have opened the door for Thaksin’s long-awaited return to Thailand.
“He needs the military’s help and elite support to return without imprisonment, while Pheu Thai needs to keep Future Forward in check,” said Paul Chambers, an expert at Naresuan University in Thailand.
Thailand’s political analyst, Pravit Rojanaphruk, stated in an interview with Al Jazeera that Thaksin’s release raises more questions than answers. “If his health permits, what role will Thaksin play? Will he directly influence government policies through Pheu Thai or be content with an advisory role behind the scenes?” Pravit said.
Professor Phichai Ratnatilaka Na Bhuket from the National Institute of Development Administration in Thailand added, “Thaksin could have left the hospital in secret on the morning of February 18, but he chose to publicize it. This choice shows that he intends to set aside criticisms and return to the political arena.”
According to Thai outlets such as Bangkok Post and The Nation, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin personally refuted doubts that the government would be influenced by Thaksin. He emphasized that the government is willing to accept any advice from Thaksin because the former prime minister has good intentions for the country and possesses extensive experience.
However, other observers pointed out that Thailand upon Thaksin’s return is significantly different from when he left.
“Thaksin’s populist agenda is no longer the focus; instead, it’s the institutional reforms that Future Forward aims for,” commented Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political science professor at Chulalongkorn University, in an interview with CNN.
Thitinan also mentioned that joining forces with former adversaries could result in Thaksin losing some influence within Pheu Thai.
Furthermore, Thaksin is not completely free from legal troubles. The day after his release, he appeared before prosecutors who were investigating allegations of insulting the monarchy during an interview in South Korea in 2015.
In the end, it remains to be seen how Thaksin will navigate through his return to the political scene in Thailand.
Business Today
For more articles on finance and economics, visit Business Today.