US Voters Predict Dramatic Rematch Between Trump and Biden
The preliminary elections held on Super Tuesday were anything but dull, as incumbent President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump secured dominant victories and faced no significant competition. With just a short time left, both candidates are now on track to officially go head-to-head once again in November.
Image: BBC
Nikki Haley, former US Ambassador to the United Nations, announced on March 6th that she is dropping out of the Republican presidential race. With this decision, Donald Trump became the sole candidate for the Republican party in the 2024 presidential election.
On the Democratic side, candidate Dean Phillips, a state senator from Minnesota, also announced his withdrawal. This leaves Marianne Williamson as the last remaining opponent to President Biden.
The primary races in both parties have lost their tension, as President Biden in the Democratic party and former President Trump in the Republican party have secured overwhelming advantages. As a result, Americans have already begun speculating about who will emerge as the winner in this year’s presidential election.
Currently, the support for Biden’s re-election remains lower than that for Trump. According to recent polls, Biden has around 43-44% chance of staying in the White House, while Trump’s support stands at approximately 46-48%.
Unprecedented Circumstances
While this is not the first election rematch in US presidential history, this year’s election is predicted to be truly unprecedented.
Never before has the country had to choose between two candidates of such advanced age, with Biden at 81 and Trump at 77. Furthermore, it is unprecedented in modern history to have two potential candidates who were former US presidents, yet are currently facing comparatively low approval ratings.
This election is also unique due to the ongoing legal proceedings faced by former President Trump, including criminal charges and numerous civil lawsuits. Meanwhile, incumbent President Biden faces suspicions regarding his age and physical fitness to continue serving as president.
According to a Wall Street Journal survey, Biden will have to convince a significant portion of the American public that he possesses the mental capacity to assume the most challenging position in the world, as nearly three-quarters of voters believe he is too old for re-election.
Trump, on the other hand, will have to persuade voters that the criminal charges and civil lawsuits will not hinder his effectiveness in the White House. The WSJ survey suggests that if Trump were to be convicted, it would damage the political standing of the former president.
Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a member of the Democratic National Committee, said, “If you were going to use the cliché ‘unprecedented,’ this would be it.”
Breaking Tradition
Donald Trump is a unique figure in American politics, as he is not the leader of a unified party governed by a consistent philosophy but rather the head of a movement built on his own personality.
Trump has disrupted almost every expectation of how to conduct campaigns, including his ability to directly communicate with supporters through his own social media platform.
He also broke tradition by spending a significant amount of time attacking his opponents within his own party. At present, candidates usually aim to unite their party internally and attract voters who supported other candidates in the primary elections.
Both Trump and Biden are well acquainted with the demands of a national campaign. For Trump, this will be his third presidential campaign, while for Biden, it will be his fifth campaign as a presidential or vice-presidential candidate.
Because both candidates are so well-known and have previously served as president, it cannot be said that voters are unfamiliar or uncertain about Joe Biden or Donald Trump. This indicates that the campaign can be influenced by external events as much as by the candidates’ images or policies.
Tony Fabrizio, who currently works for a pro-Trump political action committee, stated, “Right now, we’re focused on immigration and the economy. If the focus shifts to areas where Biden is perceived to be doing better, that’s an advantage for Biden.”
Tim Pawlenty, former governor of Minnesota and a Republican presidential candidate, believes that the current race is leading to a “rematch” between the two old rivals. It is crucial to focus on the issues that have changed since 2020.
Democratic party members believe that the changes compared to the last election, namely the abortion rights issue and the Capitol riot on January 6th, 2021, will influence voters when choosing between Trump and Biden.
Low Approval Ratings
It is worth noting that the Trump-Biden rematch is not highly anticipated by most Americans. Polls indicate that both candidates have low approval ratings.
In 2016, neither Trump nor Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton were highly favored when they were on the verge of securing their party’s nominations. This marked a low point in US history, as both choices faced significant criticism. However, the level of “disfavorability” towards the current candidates is even higher.
A Journal/NBC News poll in May 2016 showed that 41% of voters had a “very negative” view of Clinton, while 44% had the same sentiment towards Trump. Meanwhile, the percentage of voters with a “very unfavorable” view of both Biden and Trump currently stands at around 50%.
Nevertheless, Mike Bocian, a Democratic pollster, claims that history does not provide much insight into how to interpret the poll numbers for 2024 and predict how the upcoming election will unfold.
It is clear that the 2024 presidential election in the United States will be a showdown between two familiar faces, Biden and Trump. As the campaign progresses, only time will tell which candidate can gain an edge and persuade the American public to support them in their quest for the presidency.